[HCDX] NOAA Needs your Help! / Prop. Alert!

[pioneer ten <pioneer_tin@xxxxxxxxx>]

I'm sure most of you "old salts" know about this site but did you know they're in trouble?
Please read below :
 
73s - pioneere 10
 
 
Sun Spots: 230 as of 28 Oct 2003 
Updated 2003 Oct 29 2112 UTC for 29 October 
Flux: 279 | Ap: 180 | Kp: 9 (536 nT) 
Solar Wind data unavailable. 
On 2003 Oct 29 2218Z: Bz: N/A nT
Bx: N/A nT | By: N/A nT | Total: N/A nT 
Most recent satellite polar pass:
Centered on 10/29/2003 : 1947 UTC
Aurora Activity Level was 10 at 1947 UTC
visit noaa for latest. 
live aurora display 
X-ray Solar Flares:
6h max [][Z ] 24h max [][Z ] 
1m x-ray flare graph
D-Layer Conditions

Global HF Propagation Conditions for 2100Z on 29 Oct, 2003
Low Latitude: Poor
Mid Latitude: Poor
Hi Latitude: Poor(PCA)

More details further down the page... 

And, if you have a newsreader for "RSS" data,
you can get the latest prop data here.
(use http://hfradio.org/propsupport/prop.rss as your channel url) 




Outlook:
29 Oct 2003 10CM Flux: 270 / Ap: 104
30 Oct 2003 10CM Flux: 265 / Ap: 050
31 Oct 2003 10CM Flux: 250 / Ap: 017

Comment from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): (!) Yesterday an X17.2 X-ray burst occurred at the huge sunspot group Catania 70 (NOAA 0486). Its peaking time is 11:10 UT. A full halo CME was observed by LASCO C2 and C3. The full halo CME was first visible in C2 at 10:54 UT and in C3 at 11:42 UT. The estimated speed of the CME is about 2125 km/s (very fast!), which means the travel time to the earth is about 1 day. At present a severe geomagnetic storm is ongoing. The NOAA Kp=9,8; Izmiran K=8,6. This indicates the fast CME related to the X17 flare has arrived on earth. Half an hour after the event, proton levels started to increase drastically. At about 0 UT this morning (29/10) the 10 MeV proton fluxes exceeded 10000. Currently the proton fluxes all are decaying, but still above the threshold. The proton event is still going on. We expect further major solar activity around Sunspot group Catania 70 (NOAA 0486), which has an actual size of 0,23 % of the total disk area. It is still growing.
 Also group 75 (NOAA 0488) is growing in size and magnetic complexity. It already gave several C flares and one M flare.   See general details below... 


NW7US Propagation Alert 

28 Oct 2003 - 2000 UTC 

What an exciting time for radio enthusiasts! This past weekend's media hype about a major geomagnetic and solar storm was unfortunate and unwarranted. But, today, solar events have occurred that has the whole propagation science community buzzing. 

I just finished talking with Mike Weaver from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Space and Environment Center (NOAA SEC). He is the Solar Forecaster that has been on duty for the last four days. Last week, I also spoke with Bill Murtagh, who is beginning a shift to cover the next few days. Our discussion focused on today's events, and what will transpire over the next few days. The following is my perspective of current solar and geophysical conditions and the forecast for the next 48 hours or so. 

On 28 October 2003 UTC, an X17.2-class flare from NOAA Region 486 occurred at 0951Z, peaking at 1110Z. This caused severe radio blackouts (R4 is the reported level, see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ for details on the scales used) on the sunlit side of the Earth (which would have been morning, on the eastern coast of North America). It also created an S3 (strong) solar radiation storm. Associated with this flare are a proton event and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). This flare is the second most intense of the current solar cycle. It is not historical. We expect several of these large flares during any given solar cycle. 

The proton event started at about 1330Z, and has exceeded all threshold levels, causing a Polar Cap Absorption event (PCA). It is expected that this proton event will be prolonged and last for the next 36 hours, to some degree. This will cause transpolar path degradation (don't expect any DX over the poles nor over any high-latitude paths) for the next few days. 

The CME was a full-halo, and is directed squarely at the Earth. Based on the speed and recordings, so far, Mike expects it to impact the Magnetosphere at about 1500Z 29 October 2003. When it hits, the shock alone will produce at least G3-level geomagnetic activity. This would translate to a Kp index of about 8, even if the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) is not pointed south when the CME arrives. After the initial shock wave, if the Bz is negative, indicating that the IMF has turned south, the Kp index will remain high, with a possible Kp of 9 during the passage of the CME. This will cause between a level G4 and a G5 (severe to extreme) geomagnetic storm. This will severely degrade HF and MW radio communications (while possibly enhancing VHF/UHF propagation). 

The timing of the arrival of the CME shock will occur after sunrise for those in North America. Therefore, I do not expect to see any Aurora tonight, local time on 28 October 2003. However, I do expect radio auroral mode propagation during the day of 29 October 2003, and continuing into the night of the same day. If the IMF remains negative, there is a strong chance of a prolonged severe geomagnetic storm, with associated Aurora viewable as far south as southern California and Florida. 

Continued radio blackouts are likely from new flare activity. As I write this, we are in the decline of a new M-class flare. There are eight main regions on the visible solar disk, three of which are actively producing flares. One of these is about to rotate out of view. One of the new regions just rotating into view is active, and has already produced some M-class flares. 

Overall conditions: 

In the next 12 to 20 hours, expect great conditions on frequencies above 15 MHz, while in general, all HF will have periods of radio blackouts during the flare events, if they occur. (And, they will occur). Sometime around 1500Z, tomorrow (29 Oct 2003), expect all HF communications to become severely degraded with the arrival of the CME shock, and for a severe to extreme geomagnetic storm to commence and last for a prolonged period. S3-level (severe) solar radiation storm conditions will last for the next 24 to 48 hours. 

I expect a lot more activity during this week, but I don't view this as a "third" peak in this current solar cycle, number 23. Several past cycles have had such bursts during the decline of those cycles. 

I'll post more about this soon. 


URGENT!

>From the CQ Newsroom: 

NOAA "Space Weather" Service Threatened 

The service on which many amateurs depend for reports on ionospheric conditions may have its funding sharply cut or eliminated under two versions of a Congressional spending plan for Fiscal Year 2004. The Space Environment Center, part of the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provides "space weather" reports on solar and geomagnetic activity that affect the ionosphere, which in turn affects radio propagation. In addition, solar flares and similar events can damage satellites, so advance knowledge can help protect them. Propagation predictions in CQ and other publications depend on these space weather observations. 

The Space Environment Center is actually operated jointly by NOAA and the Air Force, but its funding is in the NOAA budget. The SEC suffered a 40% budget cut in the current fiscal year, and the House budget proposal for 2004 calls for an additional 40% cut. The Senate version of the bill cuts funding for the SEC altogether, along with the somewhat cynical comment in an accompanying report that "the 'Atmospheric' in NOAA does not extend to the astral. Absolutely no funds are provided for solar observation. Such activities are rightly the bailiwick of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Air Force." 

We understand from SEC staff that the House Science Committee's Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee will be holding a hearing next week (October 30) on the funding bill, and that letters and comments from the public will be entered into the record. If you are concerned about the possible loss of information gathered and disseminated by the SEC, you may write to the House Committee On Science, Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee, 2320 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515. You should direct your comments to the Chairman, Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R-MI), ask that they be included in the record of the Oct. 30 hearing, and explain in NON-TECHNICAL terms how you benefit from the "space weather" services provided by the SEC, and how you would be adversely affected if those services were further reduced or eliminated. 

A full list of the members of the Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee is below. If the list includes your Representative, and you are inclined to write, you might also send a letter or comment directly to your Representative. 

House Committee on Science
Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards 

Republican Members
Vernon J. Ehlers, Michigan, Chairman
Nick Smith, Michigan
Gil Gutknecht, Minnesota
Judy Biggert, Illinois
Wayne Gilchrest, Maryland
Timothy Johnson, Illinois
Michael Burgess, Texas

Democratic Members
Mark Udall, Colorado, Ranking Minority Member
Brad Miller, North Carolina
Lincoln Davis, Tennessee
Brian Baird, Washington
Jim Matheson, Utah
Zoe Lofgren, California

Ex-oficio members:
Sherwood L. Boehlert, New York, Chairman, House Science Committee 
Ralph M. Hall, Texas, Ranking Minority Member, House Science Committee

To contact any Member of Congress by e-mail, go to http://www.house.gov and follow prompts to find contact information for the member you want to reach.

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