[HCDX] Renewed Solar Flaring Expected
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[HCDX] Renewed Solar Flaring Expected
- To: "a Topband eGroup" <topband@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "a RSGB PSC eGroup" <PSC.Committee@xxxxxxxxxxx>, "a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "a E Layer E-Group" <e-layer@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Alan, G3NYK" <Alan.Melia@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Tad Cook, K7RA" <k7ra@xxxxxxxx>, "Tomas, NW7US" <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>, "Howard Oakley" <hoakley@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Subject: [HCDX] Renewed Solar Flaring Expected
- From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 13 Nov 2003 10:23:19 -0500
- Cc: a WX M Storm Rpts eGroup <stormreports@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a PSK31 eGroup <psk31@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a Weathervine eGroup <weathervine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a PSK31 es eGroup <psk31@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a WX Matrix Fcst eGroup <wx-forecast@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a Shortwaves eGroup <shortwaves@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a Topica FT-840 eGroup <ft840@xxxxxxxxxx>, a Cumbre DX eGroup <cumbredx@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a HCDX eGroup <hard-core-dx@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a My FT-840 E-Group <yaesu_ft840@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, a ABDX eGroup <ABDX@xxxxxxxxxx>
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After the previous record active two week period of solar, space and
geomagnetic weather I took the opportunity to ignore it all while all was
relatively quiet during the past week plus. The minor Kp-5 to occasionally
moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming of the past few days has been related to
geoeffective Coronal Hole #66. This particular Coronal Hole created major
havoc with Earth's magnetic field in it's earlier carnations as #063 Kp-7
Ap-106 and #059 Kp-7 Ap-129. It's unfortunate but Coronal Hole producing
geomagnetic storms are far more common on the downside of a solar cycle and
more promise to delay consistently good propagation conditions.
That was the good news. The bad is that Sunspot group #10484, one of the big
three to create major havoc 1-2 weeks ago
will rotate around the east limb of our Sun today, followed thereafter by
#10486. It's doubtful that we will see an exact repeat of numerous X class
solar flares, Kp's of 9 and Ap's of 400. However the groups have been very
active while out of view
and more large solar flares, energetic elevated proton events, coronal mass
ejections (CME's) and geomagnetic storming are probable.
By the way it's not well known but high solar activity does impact sensible
tropospheric weather by raising thickness heights in mid and low latitudes.
End result is a displacement of semi permanent pressure systems and warmer
winter weather and summer drought. Just one of the many shorter term
patterns that gives the false appearance of global warming.
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Yaesu FT-840 & PSK31 Digital Mode E Group:
160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
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