[HCDX] NW7US Aurora watch - and Flare Activity Bulletin 15 Jan 2005

["NW7US, Tomas" <nw7us@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

On January 14, 2005, there was a small solar flare that was located on the  
solar central meridian.  The associated plasma that was ejected, directed  
squarely toward Earth, will arrive simultaneously with an already elevated  
solar wind stream.  It is expected that the geomagnetic activity will  
become highly active, to perhaps major storm levels.  This will trigger  
Aurora at least in the high latitudes, but possibly along the middle  
latitudes, starting during the night of January 15 through January 16.

Updates if necessary will follow.

I've posted a list of the flares of 14 January through the start of 15  
January, 2005 (up to the writing of this message, which is 0510 UTC 15  
January 2005) at http://hfradio.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=521#521

So far, records show that sunspot group 0720 has spawned 36 X-ray Flares.  
An additional flare from sunspot group 0719 occurred, making the number of  
flares since the start of January 14 a total of 37!

Thirty-six flares already from this giant sunspot group!

Six of them were M-class flares.  One, peaking at 0043 UTC, 15 January  
2005, was a level X1.2 in size!  The latest was an M5.9.  There are more  
on the way.

This of course is causing Radio Blackouts on the sunlit side of Earth.  It  
will generate geomagnetic storms due to the likely coronal mass ejections  
heading our way, which in turn will lower the Maximum Usable Frequencies  
over most paths by as much as 30 percent.

We're in for interesting times.  The Flux is rising, and will spawn  
propagation on higher bands.  Visual Aurora is very likely, as well, due  
to coronal plasma ejections and an enhanced solar wind stream.  Expect  
RADIO AURORA MODE PROPAGATION starting late 15 January 2005, onward.

Another memorable moment in Cycle 23.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA)

: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications :
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