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[HCDX] Solar activity increases odds of disruptions on Earth
Solar activity increases odds of disruptions on Earth
http://www.times-standard.com/localnews/ci_18706106
Suzanne Bohan/Contra Costa Times
Posted: 08/18/2011 02:20:17 AM PDT
The sun has entered a cycle of increasingly powerful flares and eruptions, catapulting to
Earth high-energy particles capable of wreaking havoc on electronic and communication
systems that support our high-tech civilization.
"We're seeing so much more now, compared with the last few years," said Ben Burress, an
astronomer with the Chabot Space and Science Center in Oakland. He pointed to a satellite
image that showed flares and magnetic storms roiling the sun's surface.
"And when you have them happening five times a day, there's a greater chance of one
actually hitting us," he said.
The powerful solar storms shift the spectacular northern lights as far south as Florida and
Texas, but they also punch holes in the Earth's protective magnetic field, which can cause
health problems as well as disrupt communications. On Tuesday, radiation from a solar flare
briefly interfered with shortwave radio signals, an easily affected high-frequency wave.
The disruptions are coming because the sun is entering a decadelong phase that scientists
call "solar maximum." In the midst of this phase, the sun's magnetic field flips north to south,
contributing to the solar storms that NASA says should peak in 2013 or 2014.
Solar flares typically affect radio signals on the daylight side of the planet, said Joseph
Kunches, a space scientist at the Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo.
The real danger comes when
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a solar storm ejects a chunk of the corona -- the sun's outermost layer -- toward the Earth. It
hurtles through space as a huge electrically charged cloud with its own magnetic field.
Scientists call it a "coronal mass ejection."
"That cloud of plasma is thrown off the sun like a bowling ball, and sometimes we're at the
other end of the bowling alley and it hits us," Kunches said.
When that happens, the Earth's magnetic field buckles and resulting magnetic storms can
set off electrical surges that damage transformers and other equipment in electrical grids.
In 1989, a solar storm triggered the collapse of Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid, cutting
power to 6 million people for as much as nine hours. That storm also knocked out a
transformer at a New Jersey power plant, along with 200 other smaller disruptions in the
North American power grid, according to a 2008 National Academy of Sciences report on
space weather.
Other solar storm damage cited in the report:
* The 2005 diversion of 26 United Airlines flights, due to the loss of shortwave radio
communication over the North Pole. In that region, pilots rely on shortwave radio since
satellites orbiting the equator are out of range.
* A 30-hour shutdown of a Federal Aviation Administration global positioning system in 2003.
* The 1994 blackout of two Canadian communications satellites, disrupting service
nationwide. The first recovered in a few hours, but the second was out for six months and
cost nearly $70 million to repair.
But the "granddaddy of them all," Kunches said, was an 1859 solar event. It blanketed the
planet with stunning red, green and purple auroras so bright that people could read by them
at night, according to a NASA account. The auroras, usually seen only in the upper northern
latitudes, reached as far south as Hawaii and El Salvador. One early low-tech effect was
disruption of telegraph systems worldwide.
A solar "superstorm" struck again in 1921 that scientists estimate was 10 times more
powerful than the 1989 storm that disabled the Canadian grid.
Those storms struck the pre-electronic Earth. A repeat of it in modern times would be a
"space weather Katrina," according to the Academy of Sciences report. It estimates a severe
solar storm could cause $1 trillion to $2 trillion in losses the first year, and take four to 10
years to fully recover from.
Scientists such as Kunches spend their days monitoring solar storms and other space
weather through an array of satellites, and space weather forecasting is constantly
advancing.
Solar flares and ejections travel the 93 million miles to the Earth in as quickly as a day, but
more typically three to four days, Kunches said. Scientists can track them, though without
being able to precisely detail their severity. He likened it to hurricane predictions.
Forecasting enabled electrical utilities to gird against the large 2003 solar storm, minimizing
damage.
"Mother Nature's going to do what she wants, but we're paying attention," Kunches said.
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