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Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
- Subject: Re: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
- From: Russ Edmunds <wb2bjh@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 8 Dec 2018 14:00:49 +0000
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- Thread-topic: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal, and based on what's happened even over the past few months would suggest that this will happen again.
But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where have I heard that expressions before ? ).
Russ Edmunds
WB2BJH
Blue Bell, PA
Grid FN20id
________________________________
From: IRCA <irca-bounces@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> on behalf of Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@xxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
from the topband list:
>NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
>flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
>ended in 2019.
>Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
>2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
>during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
>through at least the end of 2022.
>www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
>I hate predictions, especially about the future...
>73
>Frank
>W3LPL
That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
which I didn't think possible.
They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
best wishes,
Nick
Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada
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