[IRCA] Fw: ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

["Art Blair" <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>]

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "W1AW Mailing List" <w1aw-list-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <artngwen@xxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <W1AW List:>
Sent: Friday, January 12, 2007 5:46 AM
Subject: ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
> ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP02
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
>>From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 12, 2007
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP002
> ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers for the week more than doubled from
> the previous seven days, rising 24 points to 43.4. This is a nice
> number for what should be the bottom of the sunspot cycle.
> 
> Gene Hastings, W1VRK of Marblehead, Massachusetts has kept a regular
> weekly 20 meter phone QSO with G3LMH for over 40 years. Last Friday,
> January 5 at 1400z, the signals were unusually strong, surprising
> both operators. Gene said signals of late have been running about
> S3, so this was a welcome change.
> 
> If we compare conditions a week earlier, using a propagation
> forecasting program, with zero sunspots on December 29, 20 meters
> was likely just opening over that path at that time, and the chances
> of them working on the next higher band, 17 meters, would be nil.
> 
> But a week later, with sunspot numbers for Thursday through Saturday
> of 36, 43 and 47, the band would open at least 90 minutes earlier,
> and 17 meters would be open as well. What if a year from today the
> sunspot numbers over several days were running around 80? He could
> expect the band to be open all day, with the opening about two hours
> prior to his regular schedule. Also, 17, 15 and even 12 meters would
> likely be open, and a good chance of working G3LMH on 10 meters as
> well an hour or two later.
> 
> Currently sunspots 930 and 937 are disappearing off the visible
> solar disk. Sunspot numbers should be lower over the next few days,
> but geomagnetic conditions should be stable. We probably won't see
> unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions until January 16-17, and
> later a bit more active around January 30. Sunspot numbers and solar
> flux should run higher again from January 27 through February 7.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra@xxxxxxxxx
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
> explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
> http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly
> propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
> locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 were 36, 43, 47, 46, 52, 41
> and 39 with a mean of 43.4. 10.7 cm flux was 89.4, 89.4, 87.3, 86.7,
> 88, 92.2, and 86.2, with a mean of 88.5. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 16, 9, 3, 2, 4, 4 and 7 with a mean of 6.4. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 13, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3 and 4, with a mean of
> 4.4.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
>

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