[Swprograms] Re: Auroral reports: IPS Daily Report - 07 November 04]
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[Swprograms] Re: Auroral reports: IPS Daily Report - 07 November 04]



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Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2004 00:13:52 GMT

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.0    1606UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with 
region 696 producing many C-Class events and a X2.0 Class event 
at 1545UT. Lasco C3 imagery for the 7th of November is not available 
to confirm a CME. An associated proton event is currently in 
progress arising from the X2-Class event. Region 696 remains 
quite large in sunspot size and retains a level of magnetic compexity 
that suggests further C and M-Class events are possible. A shock 
front from a CME from the 03Nov or 04Nov was observed and has 
resulted in Major Geomagnetic Storm conditons. At 1000UT the 
solar wind velocity increased by 50km/s and began to steadily 
rise from 430km/s to 500km/s at 1755UT at which it then rose 
sharply to be at 700km/s at the time of this report. Simarly 
the north south component of the interplanetary magentic field 
Bz, indicated the shock arrivals with step impulse changes in 
its magnitude of 20nT at 1755UT after which it turned southwards 
to be -40nT at the time of this report. The magentometer on the 
GOES satellite indicated a probable Geo-synchronous crossing 
of the magnetosphere exposing it to the solar wind stream as 
seen in its recorded data. There also appears to be another region 
significant region approaching the southeast limb that should 
roate on disc within the next few days. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0153UT 
on 07 Nov, and a possible weak shock was observed in the solar 
wind at 0958UT on 07 Nov, and a strong shock was observed in 
the solar wind at 1754UT on 07 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   2324 4467
      Darwin              25   2324 3466
      Townsville          30   2325 4467
      Learmonth           32   2225 4567
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            35   1324 4477
      Hobart              32   1314 3477
      Casey(Ant)          34   ---4 3366
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    60    Storm levels 
09 Nov    50    Storm levels 
10 Nov    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Geomagnetic activity 
was Quiet to Major Storm levels over the last 24 hours.A shock 
arival from a CME on 03/04 November has resulted in the current 
storm conditions. There is also a proton event curently taking 
place from a X2-Class event that occured at 1545UT. Storm conditions 
are expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours after which 
another shock front arrival could occur if a full halo CME was 
produced from the X2-Class event today (LASCO C3 imagery wasnt 
available to confirm this). 
A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1053UT on 07 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
09 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor
10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be depressed for the next 
24-36 hours due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    10    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Nov    10    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov    30    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 9-10 November. Depressed HF conditions 
forecast for the next 24-36hrs due to the arrival of shock fronts 
from recent CME activity on 03/04Nov resulting in Major Geomagnetic 
Storm levels. A proton event is also currently in progress and 
will affect transpolar communications. Depressed conditions expected 
for all Aus/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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