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Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?  View Printable Version 
Saturday, December 08 2018

IRCA
Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles). The
prediction, if true, would be longer than that. Interesting times, maybe.

best wishes,


Nick

At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:

The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.


That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
suggest that this will happen again.


But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
have I heard that expressions before ? ).


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id

 

Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?  View Printable Version 
Saturday, December 08 2018

IRCA
Lets hope this happens as we may end up with the best northern cx of our
lifetimes. 73 KAZ

On Sat, Dec 8, 2018 at 11:57 AM Nick Hall-Patch <nhp@ieee.org> wrote:

> Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
> believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
> been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles). The
> prediction, if true, would be longer than that. Interesting times,
> maybe.
>
> best wishes,
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:
> >The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
> >that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
> >mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
> >farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.
> >
> >
> >That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
> >recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
> >and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
> >suggest that this will happen again.
> >
> >
> >But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
> >have I heard that expressions before ? ).
> >
> >
> >Russ Edmunds
> >
> >WB2BJH
> >
> >Blue Bell, PA
> >
> >Grid FN20id
> >
> >________________________________
> >From: IRCA <irca-bounces@hard-core-dx.com> on behalf of Nick
> >Hall-Patch <nhp@ieee.org>
> >Sent: Saturday, December 8, 2018 1:25:36 AM
> >To: Mailing list for the International Radio Club of America
> >Subject: [IRCA] Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?
> >
> >from the topband list:
> >
> > >NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
> > >flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
> > >ended in 2019.
> > >Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
> > >2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
> > >during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
> > >through at least the end of 2022.
> > >www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression<http://www.swpc.
> > noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
> > >I hate predictions, especially about the future...
> > >73
> > >Frank
> > >W3LPL
> >
> >
> >That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
> >which I didn't think possible.
> >
> >They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
> >still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
> >fairly marvellous high latitude conditions
> >
> >best wishes,
> >
> >Nick
> >
> >Nick Hall-Patch
> >Victoria, BC
> >Canada
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >IRCA mailing list
> >IRCA@hard-core-dx.com
> >http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/irca
> >
> >Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> >original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
> >the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
> >
> >For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
> >
> >To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >IRCA mailing list
> >IRCA@hard-core-dx.com
> >http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/irca
> >
> >Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> >original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
> >the IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
> >
> >For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
> >
> >To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
>
> Nick Hall-Patch
> Victoria, BC
> Canada
>
> _______________________________________________
> IRCA mailing list
> IRCA@hard-core-dx.com
> http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/irca
>
> Opinions expressed in messages on this mailing list are those of the
> original contributors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the
> IRCA, its editors, publishing staff, or officers
>
> For more information: http://www.ircaonline.org
>
> To Post a message: irca@hard-core-dx.com
>
>

 

Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?  View Printable Version 
Saturday, December 08 2018

IRCA
Up until now the longest cycles have been between 12 and 13 years I
believe (a >13 year one was recorded in the 18th century, but there's
been some discussion as to whether that was two short cycles). The
prediction, if true, would be longer than that. Interesting times, maybe.

best wishes,


Nick

At 14:00 2018-12-08, Russ Edmunds wrote:

The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and
that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are
mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the
farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.


That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively
recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal,
and based on what's happened even over the past few months would
suggest that this will happen again.


But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where
have I heard that expressions before ? ).


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id

 

Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?  View Printable Version 
Saturday, December 08 2018

IRCA


from the topband list:

NOAA updated its predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers and solar
flux through the end of 2022. As of last month, their predictions
ended in 2019.
Their prediction shows a smoothed sunspot number of 10 for December
2018, declining to 2 in July 2020 through January 2021, then 1
during February 2021 through January 2022, and 0 after that and
through at least the end of 2022.

www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
I hate predictions, especially about the future...
73
Frank
W3LPL


That is some prediction, including having the solar flux below 60,
which I didn't think possible.

They are not sticking their necks out about average Ap, which is
still as high as it was 2011-2014, and has already delivered some
fairly marvellous high latitude conditions

best wishes,

Nick

Nick Hall-Patch
Victoria, BC
Canada

 

Fwd: Topband: At least four more years of solar minimum?  View Printable Version 
Saturday, December 08 2018

IRCA
The key thing to remember here is that these are predictions, and that predictions - for space weather or terrestrial weather - are mostly educated guesses using computer programs, and that the farther out the forecast is extended, the less accurate it will be.


That said, it is certainly not unprecedented - even in relatively recent history - for a sunspot cycle to extend longer than normal, and based on what's happened even over the past few months would suggest that this will happen again.


But I'm not yet ready to jump on the train for 4 more years ( where have I heard that expressions before ? ).


Russ Edmunds

WB2BJH

Blue Bell, PA

Grid FN20id

 

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