QUESTION: Re: DX SEASON

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Tom Messer wrote:

>>Does anyone 'out there' have an understanding of what this Autumn and
  Winter might be like as far as Dxing.In particular the frequencies of
  540 khz.to 6,000 khz.....what is the propagation forcast in regards to
  sunspots,cycles and all that solar flare stuff.Even more exact,the
  conditions this season for some one living in the upper midwest of North
  America.I just know there are those of you who can respond,and I would
  certainly appreaciate some insights.I always get eager in September to
  hit the old radio room again,and join the ranks of those who are
  dedicated to dxing all year round.
  Thanks in advance....Tom Messer River Falls Wisconsin .9/8/97
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Well, Tom, generally it can be said that the solar activity, after it
reached its minimum, goes up again to reach its predicted maximum in the
middle of the year of 2000.

The higher is the solar activity, the higher shortwave bands are open.
In the years around the solar maximum, we in Europe can expect reception
of various utility stations from Americas on frequencies up to 40 MHz
(and vice versa). Unforgetable is a QSL collection of our DX-friend
Joachim Stiller from Germany - he has got a plenty of verifications from
fire-brigade units in the U.S., heard on frequencies above 30 MHz
ca. 7 years ago.

But Tom, you ask about frequencies between 540 kHz and 6 MHz.
For the MW reception, this comming winter maybe will be the last one with
exceptional conditions. The more we come to the solar maximum, the more
disturbances of the geomagnetic field we can expect. They are caused by
solar eruptions.Disturbed geomagnetic field (a serious disturbance is called
minor- or major storm) blanks off signals especially on their northern paths.
Such situation can last for several days, at more serious events it can last
for one week what is especially unpleasant during DXpeditions when a half
of such a 2-weeks long session goes in vain...
But it does not mean that conditions are always bad during eruptional
activity on the Sun. During auroral conditions we usually find improved
southern paths, in North America it means enhanced MW signals from the
Caribbean and deeper South America.

Tropical bands are influenced the similar way. We, here in northern
hemisphere, can expect improved conditions "when something is happening
on the Sun". But it can last for one or two days (nights) only, then the
tropical bands are usually affected by the disturbance too...

I can seriously recommend listening to WWV data+forecasts on 5,10,15,20 MHz
at every 18th minute past the hour. By A-index 0-5 you can expect
good conditions on MW. The best conditions usually occur when it is
"quiet before storm". When the storm is to come, it can be calculated from
the situation of the last month resp. 27 days ago. It is a period of one
rotation of the Sun. If there was a storm commencing, say, on September 20
we can expect the recurancy again after 27 days (= October 17).
Of course, we cannot rely on it 100 %, the behaviour of the Sun is still
uncalculable. In our case it can happen that solar spots that caused
the geomagnetic storm, disappear before the Sun shows us the same part
of its surface again. It can also happen that new spots develop on the
hidden side of the Sun and as the Sun rotates they start to influent
our ionosphere in an unexpected time.

I wish you, Tom, and all our friends of the Hard-Core-DX circle
G O O D   D X
during the comming winter season (at least here in the northern hemisphere).

Karel Honzik
Czech Republic (Central Europe)