[DX] Seuraava auringonpilkkumaksimi matalampi kuin aikoihin?

["Mauno Ritola" <Mauno.Ritola@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Kun tulisi se minimi ensin ...

http://solar.uleth.ca/news/05Mar2005/index.php

THE NEXT SOLAR MAXIMUM THE SMALLEST IN 100 YEARS?

05 March 2005 | The latest research results by Drs. Leif Svalgaard, Yohsuke 
Kamide at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University 
(Japan) and Edward W. Cliver at the Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force 
Research Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base (Massachusetts) suggest that the 
Sun may be less active during the next solar cycle than it has been during 
the last 100 years. . .
These results are based upon one of the most successful solar cycle 
prediction methods in existence. The "Precursor Method" is capable of 
predicting the magnitude of the next solar maximum up to about 7 years 
before the solar maximum occurs. This is possible by examining the strength 
of the magnetic fields that congregate in the polar regions of the Sun a few 
years before the solar minimum of each solar cycle and relating the strength 
of those fields to the observed sunspot numbers during the next solar 
maximum. The polar magnetic fields provide the "seed" magnetic flux 
necessary to drive the sunspot activity during the next solar cycle.

The most recent findings by Dr. Svalgaard et al. are based on only the first 
of three years of data during the current decline of solar cycle 23. At 
least two more years of data (through the solar minimum) are required to 
provide a more accurate prediction. Nevertheless, sufficient data is now 
available to make an initial reasonable prediction. They predict that the 
next solar maximum (the time during which the proliferation of sunspots is 
greatest) will be associated with a sunspot number of only 75, with an error 
of ± 8. If this prediction holds true, the next solar cycle (cycle 24) will 
peak around the year 2011 with a sunspot number that is lower than any 
previous solar cycle since cycle 14 when the observed sunspot number peaked 
at a value of only 64 in 1906.

What is the significance of this prediction, assuming it holds true? 
Sunspots are a source of eruptive phenomena such as solar flares. Energetic 
coronal mass ejections are also related to the occurence of solar flares. 
And coronal mass ejections can produce hazardous space weather conditions to 
spacecraft, aircraft and power grids. One would think that a lower sunspot 
number would be good news for these industries. Overall average space 
weather effects may indeed be a bit milder. But these industries are more 
adversely affected by the few extreme solar outbursts that occur during the 
solar cycle than they are during the less volatile "average" conditions 
observed during the solar cycle. Svalgaard et al. are quick to point out 
that some of the most intense space weather storms have occurred during 
solar cycles having low sunspot numbers. For example, two of the eight most 
intense geomagnetic storms during the last ~150 years occurred during solar 
cycle 14, while three of the five strongest energetic proton events at 
greater than 30 MeV since 1859 occurred during solar cycle 13 when the peak 
sunspot number plateaued at only 88. The scientists note that the next solar 
cycle could prove to be an excellent test-bed for a number of models and 
theories concerning the solar cycle and solar activity.

A direct measure of the strength of the solar polar fields will be possible 
during 2007-2008 when the Ulysses space probe will make another pass over 
the solar poles. Dr. Svalgaard and his colleagues fully expect the strength 
of the polar fields measured during these polar passes will be significantly 
smaller than the strength of the fields that were observed during the polar 
passes of 1994 and 1995 during the minimum phase of the last solar cycle. 
This would help validate their prediction of a much smaller solar maximum 
during the next solar cycle than has been observed in recent memory.

via DXLD

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